{"id":376,"date":"2012-01-15T01:52:16","date_gmt":"2012-01-15T00:52:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/cut.the.crap.free.fr\/?p=376"},"modified":"2012-01-15T01:52:16","modified_gmt":"2012-01-15T00:52:16","slug":"prediction-pour-2012-sans-astrologie-ni-medium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/prediction-pour-2012-sans-astrologie-ni-medium\/","title":{"rendered":"Pr\u00e9diction pour 2012 (sans astrologie ni boule de cristal)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dans le n\u00b05 (janvier 2012) de Sin\u00e9 Mensuel<\/em>, le sociologue Laurent Mucchielli rappelle qu’en 2002, un fait divers (l’affaire du papy Voise) avait occup\u00e9 l’actualit\u00e9 trois jours avant le deuxi\u00e8me tour de l’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle.<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0L’affaire du papy d’Orl\u00e9ans est embl\u00e9matique. Des gens auraient voulu racketter ce vieux monsieur qui vivait dans une cabane en bois au fond d’un jardin alors qu’il n’avait pas un radis. Bizarrement, ils ne l’ont frapp\u00e9 qu’au visage et quand il a \u00e9t\u00e9 hospitalis\u00e9, les m\u00e9decins ont interdit l’entr\u00e9e \u00e0 la presse. Mais une \u00e9quipe de TF1 a r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 entrer et filmer la victime sur son lit d’h\u00f4pital. Le journaliste Anthony Gautier a montr\u00e9 que c’\u00e9tait un coup mont\u00e9. L’ancien patron de TF1 a reconnu que les politiques avaient instrumentalis\u00e9 l’affaire avec la complicit\u00e9 de certains m\u00e9dias. Comme nous vivons dans un monde qui n’a pas de m\u00e9moire, une actualit\u00e9 chasse l’autre au bout de 48 heures.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Dans Apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9mocratie<\/em>*, Emmanuel Todd revient, lui, sur un autre \u00e9v\u00e9nement survenu juste avant l’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2007, alors que Sarkozy \u00e9tait encore au coude \u00e0 coude dans les sondages avec S\u00e9gol\u00e8ne Royal :<\/p>\n

\u00ab\u00a0(…) le 26 mars, Nicolas Sarkozy quittait le minist\u00e8re de l’Int\u00e9rieur. Le lendemain, \u00e0 la gare du Nord, des affrontements spectaculaires opposaient bandes de casseurs et forces de police. Au soir du premier tour de l’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle, le sondage TNS Sofres dit de ‘sortie des urnes’ indiquait que ce qui avait le plus influenc\u00e9 le vote des \u00e9lecteurs de Sarkozy \u00e9tait, mentionn\u00e9 par 43% d’entre eux, le choc de la gare du Nord.<\/p>\n

L’encha\u00eenement des faits, leur importance obligent \u00e0 s’interroger (ce que la presse n’a pas fait) sur la spontan\u00e9it\u00e9 de ces affrontements. L’agent provocateur, apr\u00e8s tout, est une figure famili\u00e8re dans l’Histoire. (…) Jamais Nicolas Sarkozy n’aurait atteint 31% des suffrages au premier tour sans le climat de fi\u00e8vre qu’engendra cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement, pas seulement en lui-m\u00eame mais aussi et surtout parce qu’il rappelait la grande flamb\u00e9e des banlieues survenue dix-sept mois auparavant.\u00a0\u00bb<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

En janvier 2012, le petit pr\u00e9sident de l’ex-R\u00e9publique, dont nul ne doute qu’il sera candidat \u00e0 sa propre succession, est distanc\u00e9 dans les sondages par son rival social-lib\u00e9ral (Fran\u00e7ois Hollande). La crise \u00e9conomique, la perte du triple A, la r\u00e9cession replongent le pays dans une lutte des classes<\/em> que le sinistre Gu\u00e9ant \u00e9tait charg\u00e9 de faire oublier au profit de la lutte des races<\/em> en menant une politique r\u00e9pressive x\u00e9nophobe. D’ici l’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle d’avril-mai 2012, on peut donc s’attendre \u00e0 coup s\u00fbr \u00e0 ce que TF1, ou quelque autre m\u00e9dia national-sarkozyste, s’efforce de cr\u00e9er dans l’opinion, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un fait divers opportun, le r\u00e9flexe de peur qui permettra \u00e0 Sarkozy de reconqu\u00e9rir son \u00e9lectorat.<\/p>\n

Nul ne peut pr\u00e9dire cependant si, en pleine \u00ab\u00a0saison des temp\u00eates\u00a0\u00bb, un tel subterfuge suffira \u00e0 faire diversion. Esp\u00e9rons que non.<\/p>\n

Bonne ann\u00e9e 2012.<\/p>\n

______________________________<\/p>\n

* Emmanuel Todd, Apr\u00e8s la d\u00e9mocratie<\/em>, Gallimard, 2008.<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dans le n\u00b05 (janvier 2012) de Sin\u00e9 Mensuel, le sociologue Laurent Mucchielli rappelle qu’en 2002, un fait divers (l’affaire du papy Voise) avait occup\u00e9 l’actualit\u00e9 trois jours avant le deuxi\u00e8me tour de l’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle. \u00ab\u00a0L’affaire du papy d’Orl\u00e9ans est embl\u00e9matique. Des gens auraient voulu racketter ce vieux monsieur qui vivait dans une cabane en bois … Continuer la lecture de « Pr\u00e9diction pour 2012 (sans astrologie ni boule de cristal) »<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[4],"tags":[99,107,248,313,333],"class_list":["post-376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-lectures","tag-emmanuel-todd","tag-fait-divers","tag-nicolas-sarkozy","tag-sine-mensuel","tag-tf1"],"yoast_head":"\nPr\u00e9diction pour 2012 (sans astrologie ni boule de cristal) - Cut The Crap<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/prediction-pour-2012-sans-astrologie-ni-medium\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pr\u00e9diction pour 2012 (sans astrologie ni boule de cristal) - Cut The Crap\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Dans le n\u00b05 (janvier 2012) de Sin\u00e9 Mensuel, le sociologue Laurent Mucchielli rappelle qu’en 2002, un fait divers (l’affaire du papy Voise) avait occup\u00e9 l’actualit\u00e9 trois jours avant le deuxi\u00e8me tour de l’\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle. \u00ab\u00a0L’affaire du papy d’Orl\u00e9ans est embl\u00e9matique. 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En r\u00e9f\u00e9rence \u00e0 l'oeuvre de Robert Musil*, il d\u00e9peint les nouveaux gestionnaires et autres managers comme des \"hommes sans qualit\u00e9s\", \"agents de la tristesse\", \"petits hommes gris\" qui s\u00e9vissent \u00e0 pr\u00e9sent jusque dans l'\u00e9ducation et la\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans "R\u00e9sistance"","block_context":{"text":"R\u00e9sistance","link":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/category\/resistance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"LPC","src":"https:\/\/retraitbaseeleves.files.wordpress.com\/2010\/12\/lpc-pour-les-nuls2010.png?w=350&h=200&crop=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":519,"url":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/quand-le-capitalisme-encourage-le-celibat\/","url_meta":{"origin":376,"position":2},"title":"Quand le capitalisme encourage le c\u00e9libat","author":"\u1d10T\u1d04","date":"19 ao\u00fbt 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Le 11 ao\u00fbt 2012, Ewan Morrison publiait sur le site du Guardian un article titr\u00e9 : \"What I'm thinking about ... why capitalism wants us to stay single\". Pourquoi le capitalisme veut-il que nous restions c\u00e9libataires ? \"Maintenant que le march\u00e9 tire profit du pouvoir d'achat des c\u00e9libataires, le choix\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans "Lectures"","block_context":{"text":"Lectures","link":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/category\/lectures\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":338,"url":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/a-bas-charlie-hebdo-bravo-a-charia-hebdo\/","url_meta":{"origin":376,"position":3},"title":"A bas Charlie Hebdo, vive Charia Hebdo\u00a0!","author":"Pierre-Joseph de Stal","date":"8 novembre 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"Les la\u00efcards anticl\u00e9ricaux sont-ils condamn\u00e9s \u00e0 \u00eatre les idiots utiles de La Pen (de mort) et \u00e0 finir en ap\u00f4tres islamophobes du \"choc des civilisations\" ? La gauche anticapitaliste et antiraciste est-elle condamn\u00e9e \u00e0 tol\u00e9rer l'int\u00e9grisme islamiste, voire \u00e0 s'acoquiner avec lui pour peu qu'il nuise \u00e0 \"l'Empire\" et aux\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans "Lectures"","block_context":{"text":"Lectures","link":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/category\/lectures\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"Charia Hebdo","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cut.the.crap.free.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/charia-hebdo-300x189.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1752,"url":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/jacobinisme\/","url_meta":{"origin":376,"position":4},"title":"Jacobinisme","author":"Serge Victor","date":"3 ao\u00fbt 2019","format":"quote","excerpt":"\"Le \u201cgouvernement r\u00e9volutionnaire\u201d m\u00e8ne une guerre int\u00e9rieure et ext\u00e9rieure, prenant des mesures que les contemporains appellent \u201cr\u00e9volutionnaires\u201d \u2014\u00a0fonder la R\u00e9publique \u201cn'est point un jeu d'enfant\u201d rappelle Robespierre\u00a0\u2014, ce qui n'en fait pas pour autant une \u201cdictature\u201d. Le r\u00e9cit standard de la R\u00e9volution fran\u00e7aise a longtemps repr\u00e9sent\u00e9 le Comit\u00e9 de Salut\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans "Citations"","block_context":{"text":"Citations","link":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/category\/lectures\/citations\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":837,"url":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/salaires-en-finir-avec-lemploi\/","url_meta":{"origin":376,"position":5},"title":"Salaires : en finir avec l’emploi","author":"\u1d10T\u1d04","date":"19 f\u00e9vrier 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Voici une contribution d'un camarade de Pantin au projet de programme pour la candidature de Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon \u00e0 l'\u00e9lection pr\u00e9sidentielle de 2017, dans la cat\u00e9gorie \"Partager les richesses\" sur la plateforme www.jlm2017.fr. Le SMIC \u00e0 1700 euros propos\u00e9 dans le programme \"L'humain d'abord\" de 2012 reste une mesure n\u00e9cessaire pour\u2026","rel":"","context":"Dans "R\u00e9sistance"","block_context":{"text":"R\u00e9sistance","link":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/category\/resistance\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/cut.the.crap.free.fr\/images\/affichefranceinsoumise_Page_1.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/376","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=376"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/376\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=376"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=376"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.incaudavenenum.org\/cut.the.crap\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=376"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}